Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shrewsbury Town win with a probability of 37.51%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 37.29% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shrewsbury Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.33%) and 0-2 (5.72%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (8.5%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.