Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 42.59%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 30.38% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.88%) and 0-2 (7.67%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (9.45%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.