Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 38.68%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 35.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 0-1 (9.23%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.