Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 39.6%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 32.7% and a draw had a probability of 27.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 0-1 (9.78%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.