Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 45.22%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 30.08% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.95%) and 0-2 (7.04%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 2-1 (7.19%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.