Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oldham Athletic win with a probability of 46.79%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 28.17% and a draw had a probability of 25.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oldham Athletic win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.58%) and 0-2 (8.03%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (7.44%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.