Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Harrogate Town win with a probability of 38.74%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 35.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Harrogate Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.56%) and 0-2 (6.26%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (8.89%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.