Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cheltenham Town win with a probability of 49.75%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 25.14% and a draw had a probability of 25.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (6.48%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.