Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 46.31%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 29.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.99%) and 0-2 (7.39%). The likeliest Newport County win was 2-1 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.