Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 74.19%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Newport County had a probability of 10.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.4%) and 2-1 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.33%), while for a Newport County win it was 1-2 (3.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.