Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 46.77%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.38%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 1-2 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.