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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 44.49%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 29.82% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 0-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chesterfield | Draw | Port Vale |
| 44.49% ( | 25.69% ( | 29.82% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.33% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.53% ( | 50.47% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.6% ( | 72.4% ( |
| Chesterfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.37% ( | 22.62% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.75% ( | 56.25% ( |
| Port Vale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.92% ( | 31.07% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.61% ( | 67.39% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Chesterfield | Draw | Port Vale |
| 1-0 @ 10.44% 2-1 @ 9.07% ( 2-0 @ 7.76% ( 3-1 @ 4.5% ( 3-0 @ 3.85% ( 3-2 @ 2.63% ( 4-1 @ 1.67% ( 4-0 @ 1.43% ( 4-2 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 2.16% Total : 44.48% | 1-1 @ 12.21% ( 0-0 @ 7.03% ( 2-2 @ 5.3% ( 3-3 @ 1.02% ( Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.69% | 0-1 @ 8.22% ( 1-2 @ 7.14% ( 0-2 @ 4.8% ( 1-3 @ 2.78% 2-3 @ 2.07% ( 0-3 @ 1.87% ( Other @ 2.95% Total : 29.82% |