Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.83%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 35.76% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.29%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 (9.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.