Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crewe Alexandra win with a probability of 48.3%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 25.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.22%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.41%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 0-1 (8.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.