Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Doncaster Rovers win with a probability of 52.51%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 22.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Doncaster Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.01%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.89%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 0-1 (7.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Doncaster Rovers would win this match.