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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 44.7%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 28.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (8.41%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 0-1 (9.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Morecambe |
| 44.7% | 26.87% | 28.43% |
| Both teams to score 48.94% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.23% | 55.77% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.09% | 76.9% |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.17% | 24.83% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.57% | 59.42% |
| Morecambe Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.11% | 34.89% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.38% | 71.62% |
| Score Analysis |
| Carlisle United | Draw | Morecambe |
| 1-0 @ 12.06% 2-1 @ 8.85% 2-0 @ 8.41% 3-1 @ 4.11% 3-0 @ 3.9% 3-2 @ 2.16% 4-1 @ 1.43% 4-0 @ 1.36% Other @ 2.41% Total : 44.7% | 1-1 @ 12.7% 0-0 @ 8.66% 2-2 @ 4.66% Other @ 0.83% Total : 26.86% | 0-1 @ 9.12% 1-2 @ 6.69% 0-2 @ 4.8% 1-3 @ 2.35% 0-3 @ 1.69% 2-3 @ 1.64% Other @ 2.14% Total : 28.43% |