Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 40.57%. A win for Reading had a probability of 31.49% and a draw had a probability of 27.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Reading win was 0-1 (9.73%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.