Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 42.68%. A win for Barnsley had a probability of 28.84% and a draw had a probability of 28.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (7.83%). The likeliest Barnsley win was 0-1 (9.11%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.