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Championship header 2

League One
Plymouth Argyle
League One | Gameweek 45
Apr 29, 2023 at 3pm UK
Home Park
Burton Albion

Plymouth
1 - 0
Burton Albion

Ennis (45')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Ashworth (66'), Powell (89'), Carayol (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Plymouth Argyle and Burton Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Plymouth Argyle

All competitions
Last Game: Plymouth 2-0 Bristol Rovers
Tuesday, April 25 at 7.45pm in League One

Burton Albion

All competitions
Last Game: Lincoln 0-1 Burton Albion
Tuesday, April 25 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Plymouth Argyle 1-0 Burton Albion

 With so much on the line, there may be a few nerves for Plymouth on Saturday, but they have kept their cool during recent games, and we expect them to seal promotion. Burton will make things difficult for the Pilgrims, but they have lost two of their last three League One away matches, and they are unlikely to be able to get a result against the side with the best home record in the division. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 69.92%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 12.38%.

The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.66%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.33%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (3.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Plymouth Argyle in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Plymouth Argyle.

Result
Plymouth ArgyleDrawBurton Albion
69.92% (0.049000000000007 0.05) 17.71% (-0.022000000000002 -0.02) 12.38% (-0.023999999999999 -0.02)
Both teams to score 52.07% (0.010999999999996 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.51% (0.048999999999999 0.05)38.49% (-0.047000000000004 -0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.22% (0.051000000000002 0.05)60.79% (-0.049000000000007 -0.05)
Plymouth Argyle Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.11% (0.025999999999996 0.03)9.89% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.23% (0.058000000000007 0.06)32.77% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06)
Burton Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.79% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)42.21% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.38% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)78.62% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Plymouth Argyle 69.91%
    Burton Albion 12.38%
    Draw 17.71%
Plymouth ArgyleDrawBurton Albion
2-0 @ 11.17%
1-0 @ 9.66% (-0.011999999999999 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.64% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 8.62% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
3-1 @ 7.43% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
4-0 @ 4.98% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
4-1 @ 4.3% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.21% (0.0020000000000002 0)
5-0 @ 2.31% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.99% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.85% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 4.76%
Total : 69.91%
1-1 @ 8.33% (-0.011000000000001 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.18% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.16% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-3 @ 0.92%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 17.71%
0-1 @ 3.6% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
1-2 @ 3.59% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.55% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 1.2% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-3 @ 1.03% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.4%
Total : 12.38%

How you voted: Plymouth vs Burton Albion

Plymouth Argyle
85.7%
Draw
14.3%
Burton Albion
0.0%
28
Head to Head
Nov 19, 2022 3pm
gameweek 19
Burton Albion
2-2
Plymouth
Kamwa (41'), Mariappa (90+7')
Oshilaja (17')
Hardie (64' pen.), Mumba (73')
Apr 9, 2022 3pm
gameweek 42
Burton Albion
0-0
Plymouth

Powell (84'), Maddox (88')

Houghton (82')
Oct 9, 2021 3pm
gameweek 12
Plymouth
2-1
Burton Albion
Grant (15'), Broom (43')
Scarr (60')
Akins (59')
Apr 17, 2021 12.30pm
gameweek 42
Burton Albion
1-1
Plymouth
Broom (90+3')
Clare (19')
Hardie (69')
Watts (28'), Mayor (56'), Opoku (74')
Oct 10, 2020 3pm
gameweek 5
Plymouth
2-0
Burton Albion
Jephcott (25'), Moore (47')
Watts (63'), Canavan (72')

Hemmings (58'), Daniel (83')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe18124239211840
2Wrexham19124328111740
3Birmingham CityBirmingham17123232161639
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield18112528161235
5Stockport CountyStockport1996431191233
6Reading189453025531
7Bolton WanderersBolton179352827130
8Barnsley197662725227
9Lincoln CityLincoln197662423127
10Mansfield TownMansfield177372222024
11Exeter CityExeter187381619-324
12Charlton AthleticCharlton186571819-123
13Blackpool186572631-523
14Stevenage176471316-322
15Peterborough UnitedPeterborough186393332121
16Leyton Orient186391920-121
17Northampton TownNorthampton195682126-521
18Bristol Rovers186391726-921
19Wigan AthleticWigan185581516-120
20Rotherham UnitedRotherham175571620-420
21Crawley TownCrawley185491728-1119
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge1844101829-1116
23Burton Albion1825111630-1411
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1832131835-1711
> League One Full Table


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