Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 56%. A draw had a probability of 23.01% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 20.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (10.37%) and 0-2 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.32%) , while for a Northampton Town win it was 1-0 (6.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.