Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 48.43%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 27.61% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.99%) and 0-2 (7.82%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 (6.98%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.