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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 44.05%. A win for MK Dons had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest MK Dons win was 0-1 (9.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barnsley would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Barnsley | Draw | MK Dons |
| 44.05% ( | 27.23% ( | 28.71% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.05% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43% ( | 57% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.11% ( | 77.89% ( |
| Barnsley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.29% ( | 25.71% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.37% ( | 60.63% ( |
| MK Dons Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.68% ( | 35.32% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.92% ( | 72.07% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Barnsley | Draw | MK Dons |
| 1-0 @ 12.33% ( 2-1 @ 8.72% 2-0 @ 8.38% ( 3-1 @ 3.95% 3-0 @ 3.79% ( 3-2 @ 2.05% ( 4-1 @ 1.34% 4-0 @ 1.29% ( Other @ 2.2% Total : 44.05% | 1-1 @ 12.83% 0-0 @ 9.08% ( 2-2 @ 4.54% ( Other @ 0.78% Total : 27.23% | 0-1 @ 9.45% 1-2 @ 6.68% ( 0-2 @ 4.92% ( 1-3 @ 2.32% ( 0-3 @ 1.71% ( 2-3 @ 1.57% ( Other @ 2.07% Total : 28.72% |