League of Ireland Premier Gameweek 17
May 15, 2026 7.45pm
Waterford Regional Sports Centre

Waterford United vs Derry City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Waterford United

All competitions
League of Ireland Premier
Last game
May 8, 2026 8.00pm
St Patrick's 4 - 1 Waterford
Goals scored
13
Top scorer
Padraig Amond

Derry City

All competitions
League of Ireland Premier
Last game
May 8, 2026 7.45pm
Drogheda 1 - 0 Derry
Goals scored
19
Top scorer
Michael Duffy

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Derry City win with a probability of 52.64%. A draw has a probability of 24.82% and a win for Waterford United has a probability of 22.54%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win is 0-1 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (10.61%) and 0-2 (10.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.84%) , while for a Waterford United win it is 1-0 (7.48%).

Result

Waterford United 22.54%
Draw 24.82%
Derry City 52.64%

Both Teams to Score: 

50.51%

Goals

Over 1.5 72.03%
Under 1.5 27.97%
Over 2.5 46.33%
Under 2.5 53.67%
Over 3.5 24.21%
Under 3.5 75.79%
Over 4.5 12.61%
Under 4.5 87.39%

First Half Winner

Waterford United 18.93%
Draw 43.21%
Derry City 37.86% (-0.01)

Team To Score First

Waterford United 33.91%
No Goal 7.92%
Derry City 58.17%

Corners

Over 8 68.94%
Equal 8 9.91%
Under 8 21.15%
Over 9 57.91%
Equal 9 11.03%
Under 9 31.06%
Over 10.5 46.68%
Under 10.5 53.32%

Waterford United Goals

Over 1.5 22.77%
Under 1.5 77.23%
Over 2.5 6.05%
Under 2.5 93.95%
Over 3.5 1.52%
Under 3.5 98.48%

Derry City Goals

Over 0.5 78.57%
Under 0.5 21.43%
Over 1.5 46.57%
Under 1.5 53.43%
Over 2.5 19.57%
Under 2.5 80.43%
Over 3.5 6.65%
Under 3.5 93.35%

Score analysis

Waterford United 22.53%
Draw 24.84%
Derry City 52.64%
Waterford United
1-0 @ 7.48%
2-1 @ 5.81%
2-0 @ 3.58%
3-1 @ 1.77%
3-2 @ 1.43%
Other @ 1.51%
Total : 22.53%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.84%
0-0 @ 7.92%
2-2 @ 4.69%
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 24.84%
Derry City
0-1 @ 12.58%
1-2 @ 10.61%
0-2 @ 10.27%
1-3 @ 5.15%
0-3 @ 4.75%
2-3 @ 2.64%
Other @ 6.64%
Total : 52.64%

Head to Head

League of Ireland Premier Gameweek 4
Feb 27, 2026 7.45pm
4
2
HT : 0 1
FT Brandywell Stadium
  • Adam O'Reilly 40' yellowcard
  • Afolabi Akinyemi 54' yellowcard
  • Afolabi Akinyemi 55' yellowcard
  • Michael Duffy 58' goal
  • James Olayinka 72' yellowcard
  • H. Rylah 72' yellowcard
  • Alex Bannon 72' yellowcard
  • Michael Duffy 75' goal
  • Afolabi Akinyemi 90'+1' goal
  • Michael Duffy 90'+4' yellowcard
  • goal Jørgen Voilås 19'
  • yellowcard Tommy Lonergan 51'
  • yellowcard Dean McMenamy 66'
  • yellowcard Conor Carty 76'
  • yellowcard Jordan Faria 79'
League of Ireland Premier
Oct 17, 2025 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT
League of Ireland Premier Gameweek 23
Jul 4, 2025 7.45pm
7
2
HT : 0 0
FT
League of Ireland Premier Gameweek 12
Apr 25, 2025 7.45pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Waterford Regional Sports Centre
  • Ryan Burke 18' yellowcard
  • Darragh Leahy 40' goal
  • James Olayinka 59' yellowcard
  • Padraig Amond 65' goal
  • Kyle White 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Adam O'Reilly 55'
  • yellowcard Danny Mullen 56'
  • yellowcard Liam Boyce 56'
  • yellowcard Ciaron Harkin 64'
  • yellowcard Ciaron Harkin 64'
  • goal Liam Boyce 90'+4'
League of Ireland Premier Gameweek 3
Feb 28, 2025 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 2
FT The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium (Derry (Londonderry))
  • Shane Ferguson 18' yellowcard
  • Patrick Hoban 64' goal
  • Brian Maher 67' yellowcard
  • Patrick Hoban 68' yellowcard
  • Mark Connolly 73' yellowcard
  • Adam O'Reilly 74' yellowcard
  • Ben Doherty 90' yellowcard
  • goal Kyle White 9'
  • goal Kacper Radkowski 39'
League of Ireland Premier Gameweek 28
Aug 23, 2024 7.45pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Waterford Regional Sports Centre
  • Rowan McDonald 24' yellowcard
  • Sam Glenfield 40' yellowcard
  • Grant Horton 68' yellowcard
  • Darragh Leahy 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Paul McMullan 51'
  • goal Ben Doherty 60'
  • yellowcard Michael Duffy 88'