Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 52.64%. A draw had a probability of 24.82% and a win for Waterford United had a probability of 22.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (10.61%) and 0-2 (10.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.84%) , while for a Waterford United win it was 1-0 (7.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.