La Liga Gameweek 28
Villarreal
Mar 15, 2025 5.30pm
1
2
HT : 1 2
FT Estadio de la Ceramica
Real Madrid
  • Juan Foyth 7' goal
  • Sergi Cardona 50' yellowcard
  • Juan Foyth 75' yellowcard
  • goal Kylian Mbappe 17'
  • goal Kylian Mbappe 23'
  • yellowcard Aurelien Tchouameni 33'

Villarreal vs Real Madrid - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Reaction

News

The match

Result
Team News
Match Preview
Predicted Lineups
Injuries & Suspensions

Form, Standings, Stats

Villarreal

All competitions
Last game
Mar 8, 2025 3.15pm
Alaves 1 - 0 Villarreal
Goals scored
71
Top scorer
Ayoze Perez

Real Madrid

All competitions
Last game
Mar 9, 2025 3.15pm
Real Madrid 2 - 1 Rayo Vallecano
Goals scored
78
Top scorer
Kylian Mbappe

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 39.81%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 36.81% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.62%) and 0-2 (5.43%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 2-1 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Real Madrid in this match.

Result

Villarreal 36.81% ▼ (-0.50)
Draw 23.37% ▼ (-0.08)
Real Madrid 39.81% ▲ (+0.58)

Both Teams to Score: 

63.82% ▲ (+0.26)

Goals

Over 2.5 62.2% ▲ (+0.36)
Under 2.5 37.8% ▼ (-0.36)
Over 3.5 39.96% ▲ (+0.38)
Under 3.5 60.04% ▼ (-0.38)
Over 4.5 22.1% ▲ (+0.31)
Under 4.5 77.89% ▼ (-0.31)

Villarreal Goals

Over 0.5 79.18% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 0.5 20.82% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 1.5 46.52% ▼ (-0.14)
Under 1.5 53.48% ▲ (+0.14)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5 80.6% ▲ (+0.42)
Under 0.5 19.4% ▼ (-0.42)
Over 1.5 48.78% ▲ (+0.68)
Under 1.5 51.22% ▼ (-0.68)

Score analysis

Villarreal 36.81%
Draw 23.37%
Real Madrid 39.81%
Villarreal
2-1 @ 8.16% ▼ (-0.08)
1-0 @ 6.34% ▼ (-0.13)
2-0 @ 4.97% ▼ (-0.12)
3-1 @ 4.27% ▼ (-0.06)
3-2 @ 3.5% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 2.6% ▼ (-0.07)
4-1 @ 1.67% ▼ (-0.03)
4-2 @ 1.37% ▼ (-0.01)
4-0 @ 1.02% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 2.91%
Total : 36.81%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.39% ▼ (-0.08)
2-2 @ 6.69% ▲ (+0.03)
0-0 @ 4.04% ▼ (-0.07)
3-3 @ 1.91% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.34%
Total : 23.37%
Real Madrid
1-2 @ 8.52% ▲ (+0.06)
0-1 @ 6.62% ▼ (-0.03)
0-2 @ 5.43% ▲ (+0.05)
1-3 @ 4.66% ▲ (+0.09)
2-3 @ 3.66% ▲ (+0.07)
0-3 @ 2.97% ▲ (+0.07)
1-4 @ 1.91% ▲ (+0.07)
2-4 @ 1.5% ▲ (+0.05)
0-4 @ 1.22% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 3.33%
Total : 39.81%

Head to Head

La Liga Gameweek 9
Real Madrid
Oct 5, 2024 8.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Villarreal
  • Federico Valverde 14' goal
  • Vinicius Junior 73' goal
  • yellowcard Kiko Femenia 33'
La Liga Gameweek 37
Villarreal
May 19, 2024 6.00pm
4
4
HT : 1 4
FT Estadio de la Ceramica
Real Madrid
  • Alexander Sorloth 39' goal
  • Alexander Sorloth 48' goal
  • Alberto Moreno 45'+5' yellowcard
  • Alexander Sorloth 52' goal
  • Alexander Sorloth 56' goal
  • Bertrand Traore 84' yellowcard
  • Marcelino 90'+1' yellowcard
  • goal Arda Guler 14'
  • goal Joselu 30'
  • goal Lucas Vazquez 40'
  • goal Arda Guler 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Eduardo Camavinga 66'
  • yellowcard Dani Ceballos 86'
La Liga Gameweek 17
Real Madrid
Dec 17, 2023 8.00pm
4
1
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Villarreal
  • Jude Bellingham 25' goal
  • Rodrygo 37' goal
  • Brahim Diaz 64' goal
  • Jude Bellingham 67' yellowcard
  • Luka Modric 68' goal
  • Aurelien Tchouameni 83' yellowcard
  • goal Jose Luis Morales 54'
  • yellowcard Adria Altimira 67'
  • yellowcard Ilias Akhomach 74'
  • yellowcard Etienne Capoue 85'
La Liga Gameweek 28
Real Madrid
Apr 8, 2023 8.00pm
2
3
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Villarreal
  • Pau Torres 16' goal
  • Vinicius Junior 48' goal
  • goal Samuel Chukwueze 39'
  • goal Jose Luis Morales 70'
  • goal Samuel Chukwueze 80'
Copa del Rey
Villarreal
Jan 19, 2023 8.00pm
2
3
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio de la Cerámica
Real Madrid
  • Etienne Capoue 4' goal
  • Samuel Chukwueze 42' goal
  • goal Vinicius Junior 57'
  • goal Eder Militao 69'
  • goal Dani Ceballos 86'
La Liga Gameweek 16
Villarreal
Jan 7, 2023 3.15pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio de la Cerámica
Real Madrid
  • Yeremy Pino 47' goal
  • Gerard Moreno 63' goal
  • goal Karim Benzema 60'

Form Data

Alaves 1 - 0 Villarreal
Rayo Vallecano 0 - 1 Villarreal
Villarreal 1 - 1 Valencia
Las Palmas 1 - 2 Villarreal
Villarreal 5 - 1 Valladolid
Atletico 1 - 1 Villarreal
Atletico 1 - 0 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 2 - 1 Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid 2 - 1 Atletico
Betis 2 - 1 Real Madrid
Real Sociedad 0 - 1 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 2 - 0 Girona

Build-up

Predicted Lineups