Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 39.24%. A win for Las Palmas had a probability of 34.27% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (6.84%). The likeliest Las Palmas win was 1-0 (9.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Rayo Vallecano in this match.