La Liga Gameweek 33
Atletico
Apr 24, 2025 8.30pm
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Rayo Vallecano
  • Alexander Sorloth 3' goal
  • Conor Gallagher 45' goal
  • Julian Alvarez 77' goal
  • yellowcard Andrei Ratiu 66'
  • yellowcard Augusto Batalla 79'

Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Last game
Apr 19, 2025 8.00pm
Las Palmas 1 - 0 Atletico
Goals scored
68
Top scorer
Alexander Sorloth

Rayo Vallecano

All competitions
Last game
Apr 19, 2025 1.00pm
Rayo Vallecano 1 - 1 Valencia
Goals scored
41
Top scorer
Jorge de Frutos

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 54.8%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 22.59%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.47%) and 2-0 (8.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 1-2 (5.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result

Atletico Madrid 54.8% ▲ (+0.07)
Draw 22.61% ▲ (+0.05)
Rayo Vallecano 22.59% ▼ (-0.11)

Both Teams to Score: 

56.8% ▼ (-0.31)

Goals

Over 2.5 57.19% ▼ (-0.34)
Under 2.5 42.8% ▲ (+0.34)
Over 3.5 34.79% ▼ (-0.34)
Under 3.5 65.2% ▲ (+0.34)
Over 4.5 18.11% ▼ (-0.25)
Under 4.5 81.88% ▲ (+0.25)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5 84.46% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 0.5 15.53% ▲ (+0.10)
Over 1.5 55.54% ▼ (-0.18)
Under 1.5 44.46% ▲ (+0.18)

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 0.5 67.25% ▼ (-0.29)
Under 0.5 32.75% ▲ (+0.29)
Over 1.5 30.69% ▼ (-0.32)
Under 1.5 69.31% ▲ (+0.32)

Score analysis

Atletico Madrid 54.8%
Draw 22.6%
Rayo Vallecano 22.59%
Atletico Madrid
2-1 @ 9.85% ▲ (+0.01)
1-0 @ 9.47% ▲ (+0.11)
2-0 @ 8.82% ▲ (+0.08)
3-1 @ 6.11% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 5.48% ▲ (+0.03)
3-2 @ 3.41% ▼ (-0.04)
4-1 @ 2.85% ▼ (-0.02)
4-0 @ 2.55% ▲ (+0.01)
4-2 @ 1.59% ▼ (-0.03)
5-1 @ 1.06% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 3.62%
Total : 54.8%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.57% ▲ (+0.05)
2-2 @ 5.5% ▼ (-0.04)
0-0 @ 5.09% ▲ (+0.08)
3-3 @ 1.27% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 22.6%
Rayo Vallecano
1-2 @ 5.9% ▼ (-0.03)
0-1 @ 5.68% ▲ (+0.05)
0-2 @ 3.17% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 2.2% ▼ (-0.03)
2-3 @ 2.05% ▼ (-0.04)
0-3 @ 1.18% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 2.42%
Total : 22.59%

Head to Head

La Liga Gameweek 6
Rayo Vallecano
Sep 22, 2024 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio de Vallecas
Atletico
  • Isi 35' goal
  • goal Conor Gallagher 49'
La Liga Gameweek 20
Atletico
Jan 31, 2024 8.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Rayo Vallecano
  • Reinildo Mandava 35' goal
  • Memphis Depay 90' goal
  • Diego Simeone 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kike Perez 38'
  • goal Alvaro Garcia 42'
  • yellowcard Isi 60'
  • redcard Francisco 90'+1'
  • yellowcard Pep Chavarria 90'+3'
La Liga Gameweek 3
Rayo Vallecano
Aug 28, 2023 8.30pm
0
7
HT : 0 3
FT Estadio de Vallecas
Atletico
  • Isi 39' yellowcard
  • Florian Lejeune 65' yellowcard
  • Alfonso Espino 81' yellowcard
  • Ivan Balliu 88' yellowcard
  • goal Antoine Griezmann 2'
  • goal Memphis Depay 16'
  • goal Nahuel Molina 36'
  • yellowcard Pablo Barrios 49'
  • goal Alvaro Morata 73'
  • yellowcard Antoine Griezmann 75'
  • goal Angel Correa 79'
  • goal Alvaro Morata 84'
  • goal Marcos Llorente 86'
  • yellowcard Mario Hermoso 87'
La Liga Gameweek 28
Rayo Vallecano
Apr 9, 2023 8.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 2
FT Estadio de Vallecas
Atletico
  • Fran Garcia 85' goal
  • goal Nahuel Molina 22'
  • goal Mario Hermoso 24'
La Liga Gameweek 10
Atletico
Oct 18, 2022 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Wanda Metropolitano
Rayo Vallecano
  • Alvaro Morata 20' goal
  • goal Radamel Falcao 90'+2'
La Liga Gameweek 29
Rayo Vallecano
Mar 19, 2022 8.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Atletico
  • Mario Suarez 30' yellowcard
  • Santi Comesana 42' yellowcard
  • Oscar Trejo 65' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Renan Lodi 20'
  • goal Koke 49'
  • yellowcard Geoffrey Kondogbia 74'
  • yellowcard Koke 78'
  • yellowcard Jan Oblak 81'
  • redcard Angel Correa 85'
  • yellowcard Stefan Savic 85'

Form Data

Las Palmas 1 - 0 Atletico
Atletico 4 - 2 Valladolid
Sevilla 1 - 2 Atletico
Atletico 0 - 1 Barcelona
Espanyol 1 - 1 Atletico
Atletico 2 - 4 Barcelona
Rayo Vallecano 1 - 1 Valencia
Athletic Bilbao 3 - 1 Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano 0 - 4 Espanyol
Alaves 0 - 2 Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano 2 - 2 Real Sociedad
Real Madrid 2 - 1 Rayo Vallecano