Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 46.56%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 27.62% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Valencia win was 0-1 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.