Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 39.39%. A win for Getafe had a probability of 31.55% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.84%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest Getafe win was 0-1 (11.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Rayo Vallecano in this match.