Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Getafe win with a probability of 40.6%. A win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 30.26% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Getafe win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.04%) and 1-2 (7.92%). The likeliest Real Valladolid win was 1-0 (11.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Getafe would win this match.