Hatayspor have the opportunity to climb into the Turkish Super Lig top four on Friday, when they travel to the Kadir Has Sehir Stadi, where they will face Kayserispor.
Currently sitting in seventh spot, Hatayspor are just one point behind fourth place, while Kayserispor are sitting firmly in mid-table, five points behind their visitors this week.
Match preview
Kayserispor could not extend their seven-game unbeaten run in all competitions on Sunday, when they suffered a 3-1 defeat at the hands of 13th-placed Kasimpasa.
Mario Gavranovic gave his team the lead in that game, but the hosts turned the match around, dominating Kayserispor with more possession of the ball and creating more chances on goal.
Hikmet Karaman's side will be pleased to be back on home soil on Friday, having only lost once on their own patch this season, collecting 17 more points in one match less in Kayseri than they have managed on their travels.
They have also kept seven consecutive clean sheets at home in all competitions, winning six of those matches, suggesting that Friday's hosts will be a difficult outfit to break down.
In contrast, Hatayspor have only score 12 goals in their 12 away matches this season, eight fewer than they have managed at home, further adding to Kayserispor's confidence about keeping a clean sheet.
A heavy 6-0 defeat against Alanyaspor dented Hatayspor's belief that they are serious contenders for a top-four finish this season, but Omer Erdogan's side fixed their defensive struggles in their goalless draw against Caykur Rizespor last time out.
Hatayspor did create more chances than their visitors on Sunday, but failed to be efficient in the attacking third, so failing to score on Friday will mean Erdogan's team will have gone 270 minutes without finding the back of the net.
That does not bode well for their chances at breaking into the Europa Conference League qualifying spots, and they have seemingly conceded too many goals across the course of the campaign so far.
Hatayspor have seen 34 goals flash past them in 23 matches, the worst record out of the top 11 teams in the division, but three points on Friday could set them on a strong charge to climb the table.
Friday's visitors did get the better of Kayserispor earlier in the season, winning 2-1 in September thanks to goals from Mame Biram Diouf and Ayoub El Kaabi.
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Team News
Kayserispor striker Mame Thiam is still away on international duty in the Africa Cup of Nations, but could return to his club if Senegal fail to beat Burkina Faso in the semi-final.
Mustafa Pektemek and Gustavo Campanharo are both expected to make their returns from injuries this month, but Friday's outing will have come too soon for them, while Dimitrios Kolovetsios and Bernard Mensah remain out for the rest of the season.
The home team will operate in a 4-4-2 formation, with Gavranovic, who is aiming to add to his seven league goals this season, expected to be joined by new signing Andrea Bertolacci up top.
Hatayspor full-back Burak Camoglu only managed two appearances before being sidelined due to a muscle injury, but he is nearing a return to fitness; although, Friday's match will have come too soon for the 25-year-old.
Canadian international Sam Adekugbe earned a player of the match award on Sunday, when his nation defeated USA in their World Cup qualifiers, and he will be absent from Hatayspor's squad, only finishing international duty on Thursday.
Diouf will continue to lead the line for Hatayspor, supported by Dylan Saint-Louis, who will operate in a number 10 role just behind the former Stoke City forward, while Mohammed Kamara and Saba Lobzhanidze are likely to provide the width for the visitors.
Kayserispor possible starting lineup:
Lung Jr; Subasi, Hosseini, Demirok, Bulut; Sazdagi, Akdag, Parmak, Bassan; Gavranovic, Bertolacci
Hatayspor possible starting lineup:
Yigiter; Kaplan, Oksuz, Sackey, Corekci; Kamara, Ribeiro, Ergun, Lobzhanidze; Saint-Louis; Diouf
We say: Kayserispor 1-0 Hatayspor
Kayserispor are likely to keep a clean sheet on Friday, given their good record and run on home soil and Hatayspor's difficulties at finding the back of the net on their travels.
The hosts are unlikely to score a flurry of goals, but they will only need a single strike to collect three points with their strong defensive platform to build from.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kayserispor win with a probability of 53.24%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Hatayspor had a probability of 21.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kayserispor win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.27%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.85%), while for a Hatayspor win it was 0-1 (7.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Kayserispor would win this match.
