UEFA Nations League

Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg

Mar 20, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Italy
1 - 2
Germany

(Germany win 5-4 on aggregate)

Tonali (9')
Rovella (52'), Maldini (74')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Kleindienst (49'), Goretzka (76')
Amiri (55')

Reaction

Italy's Riccardo Calafiori reacts on March 20, 2025

Arsenal handed Riccardo Calafiori injury concern as Luciano Spalletti provides update

Arsenal are left sweating over the fitness of Riccardo Calafiori, who was withdrawn in the closing stages of Italy's 2-1 defeat against Germany in the UEFA Nations League.

Mar 20, 23:42

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

All competitions

Last Game: Italy 1-3 France
Sunday, November 17 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	France	6	6	13
2	Italy	6	5	13
3	Belgium	6	-3	4
4	Israel	6	-8	4

Germany

All competitions

Last Game: Hungary 1-1 Germany
Tuesday, November 19 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Germany	6	14	14
2	Netherlands	6	6	9
3	Hungary	6	-7	6
4	Bosnia-Herzegovina	6	-13	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Germany had a probability of 34.78% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.2%) and 2-0 (5.91%). The likeliest Germany win was 1-2 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.

Result
Italy	Draw	Germany
41.56% ( -0.18)	23.66% ( 0.01)	34.78% ( 0.18)

Both teams to score 62.36% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.45% (

0.03)

39.55% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.1% (

0.03)

61.89% (

-0.03)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.63% (

-0.07)

19.36% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.84% (

-0.12)

51.15% (

0.12)

Germany Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.34% (

0.11)

22.66% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.7% (

0.16)

56.3% (

-0.16)

Score Analysis

Italy 41.56%

Germany 34.78%

Draw 23.66%

Italy	Draw	Germany
2-1 @ 8.78% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.2% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 5.91% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 4.8% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.57% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.24% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.97% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.29% Total : 41.56%	1-1 @ 10.69% 2-2 @ 6.52% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.39% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.77% ( 0) Other @ 0.3% Total : 23.66%	1-2 @ 7.94% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 6.51% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.84% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 3.93% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 3.23% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.39% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.46% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.2% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.29% Total : 34.78%