Nations League Gameweek 1
Italy
Sep 25, 2026 7.45pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT Stadio Olimpico
Belgium
  • Gianluca Mancini 63' yellowcard
  • Daniel Maldini 90'+1' yellowcard
  • Gianluigi Donnarumma 90'+4' yellowcard
  • goal Mika Godts 20'
  • yellowcard Nicolas Raskin 25'
  • yellowcard Diego Moreira 29'
  • goal Dodi Lukébakio 69'
  • yellowcard Roméo Lavia 80'
  • yellowcard Matías Fernández-Pardo 89'
  • yellowcard Romelu Lukaku 90'+4'

Italy vs Belgium - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

All competitions

Belgium

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 40.09%. A win for Belgium had a probability of 37.59% and a draw had a probability of 22.35%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.62%) and 2-0 (5.27%). The likeliest Belgium win was 1-2 (8.04%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.68%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.

Result

Italy 40.09% ▲ (+0.08)
Draw 22.35% ▼ (-0.08)
Belgium 37.59% ▲ (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

61.8% ▼ (-0.05)

Goals

Over 1.5 82.86% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 1.5 17.14% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 2.5 62.64% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 2.5 37.36% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 3.5 40.52% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 3.5 59.45% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 4.5 25.35% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 4.5 74.65% ▲ (+0.09)

First Half Winner

Italy 33.27% ▲ (+0.18)
Draw 40.16% ▼ (-0.17)
Belgium 26.57% ▼ (-0.01)

Team To Score First

Italy 54.25% ▼ (-0.10)
No Goal 4.11% ▲ (+0.02)
Belgium 41.64% ▲ (+0.08)

Corners

Over 8 55.91% ▼ (-0.12)
Equal 8 10.5%
Under 8 33.6% ▲ (+0.13)
Over 9 45.33% ▼ (-0.11)
Equal 9 10.57% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 9 44.1% ▲ (+0.13)
Over 10.5 35.47% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 10.5 64.53% ▲ (+0.10)

Italy Goals

Over 1.5 45.34% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 54.66% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 2.5 22.49% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 2.5 77.51% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 3.5 8.59%
Under 3.5 91.41%

Belgium Goals

Over 0.5 72.3% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 0.5 27.7% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 1.5 43.25% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 1.5 56.75% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 2.5 20.22% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 2.5 79.78% ▲ (+0.10)
Over 3.5 8.28% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 3.5 91.72% ▲ (+0.04)

Score analysis

Italy 40.09%
Draw 22.35%
Belgium 37.58%
Italy
2-1 @ 8.1%
1-0 @ 6.62% ▲ (+0.04)
2-0 @ 5.27% ▲ (+0.04)
3-1 @ 4.84% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 3.54% ▼ (-0.03)
3-0 @ 3.51% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 8.21% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 40.09%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.68% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 6.17% ▼ (-0.03)
0-0 @ 4.11% ▲ (+0.02)
3-3 @ 2.01% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 0.38% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 22.35%
Belgium
1-2 @ 8.04% ▼ (-0.02)
0-1 @ 6.43% ▲ (+0.05)
0-2 @ 5.28% ▲ (+0.04)
1-3 @ 4.16% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 3.31% ▼ (-0.01)
0-3 @ 2.46%
Other @ 7.9% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 37.58%

Head to Head

Nations League
Belgium
Nov 14, 2024 7.45pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Stade Roi Baudouin
Italy
  • Timothy Castagne 28' yellowcard
  • Amadou Onana 67' yellowcard
  • Ameen Al Dakhil 77' yellowcard
  • goal Sandro Tonali 11'
  • yellowcard Alessandro Bastoni 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Moise Kean 90'+1'
Nations League
Italy
Oct 10, 2024 7.45pm
2
2
HT : 2 1
FT Stadio Olimpico
Belgium
  • Andrea Cambiaso 1' goal
  • Mateo Retegui 24' goal
  • Lorenzo Pellegrini 40' redcard
  • Gianluigi Donnarumma 90' yellowcard
  • Niccolo Pisilli 90'+6' yellowcard
  • goal Maxim De Cuyper 42'
  • goal Leandro Trossard 61'
  • yellowcard Leandro Trossard 65'
Nations League
Italy
Oct 10, 2021 2.00pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT Allianz Stadium
Belgium
  • Giovanni Di Lorenzo 30' yellowcard
  • Nicolo Barella 46' goal
  • Domenico Berardi 65' goal
  • Emerson Palmieri 82' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jan Vertonghen 14'
  • yellowcard Axel Witsel 56'
  • yellowcard Toby Alderweireld 63'
  • goal Charles De Ketelaere 86'
European Championship
Belgium
Jul 2, 2021 8.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 2
FT Allianz Arena
Italy
  • Youri Tielemans 21' yellowcard
  • Romelu Lukaku 45'+2' goal
  • yellowcard Marco Verratti 20'
  • goal Nicolo Barella 31'
  • goal Lorenzo Insigne 44'
  • yellowcard Domenico Berardi 90'
European Championship
Belgium
Jun 13, 2016 8.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT Stade de Lyon
Italy
  • Jan Vertonghen 91' yellowcard
  • goal Emanuele Giaccherini 32'
  • yellowcard Giorgio Chiellini 66'
  • yellowcard Eder 75'
  • yellowcard Leonardo Bonucci 78'
  • yellowcard Thiago Motta 84'
  • goal Graziano Pelle 93'
International Friendlies
Belgium
Nov 13, 2015 7.45pm
3
1
HT : 1 1
FT
Italy
  • Jan Vertonghen 13' goal
  • Jan Vertonghen 25' yellowcard
  • Axel Witsel 33' yellowcard
  • Kevin De Bruyne 74' goal
  • Michy Batshuayi 82' goal
  • goal Antonio Candreva 3'
  • yellowcard Eder 27'
  • yellowcard Giorgio Chiellini 34'
  • yellowcard Luca Antonelli 90'

Form Data

Greece 0 - 1 Italy
Luxembourg 0 - 1 Italy
Bosnia H'vina 1 - 1 Italy
Italy 2 - 0 N. Ireland
Italy 0 - 0 Norway
Italy 1 - 4 Norway
Spain 2 - 1 Belgium
USA 1 - 4 Belgium
Belgium 3 - 2 Senegal
New Zealand 1 - 5 Belgium
Belgium 0 - 0 Iran
Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt

Build-up

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