Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 56.45%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for New Zealand had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.24%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.07%) , while for a New Zealand win it was 0-1 (6.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.