Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gambia win with a probability of 43.92%. A win for Iran had a probability of 32.73% and a draw had a probability of 23.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gambia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.97%) and 1-2 (7.92%). The likeliest Iran win was 1-0 (8.29%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.14%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.