Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 60.85%. A draw had a probability of 23.19% and a win for Gambia had a probability of 15.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.15%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%) , while for a Gambia win it was 0-1 (5.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.