Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 67.21%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Nepal had a probability of 12.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.18%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.54%), while for a Nepal win it was 0-1 (4.8%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Tajikistan would win this match.

Result
Tajikistan	Draw	Nepal
67.21% ( 0.01)	20.22% ( -0)	12.57% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 44.27% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.81% (

-0.02)

49.18% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.75% (

-0.02)

71.25% (

0.02)

Tajikistan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.3% (

-0)

13.7% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.07% (

-0.01)

40.93% (

0.01)

Nepal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.29% (

-0.02)

48.7% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.26% (

-0.02)

83.74% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Tajikistan 67.21%

Nepal 12.57%

Draw 20.22%

Tajikistan	Draw	Nepal
1-0 @ 13.26% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 13.18% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.48% ( -0) 3-0 @ 8.74% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.28% ( -0) 4-0 @ 4.34% ( 0) 4-1 @ 3.12% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.26% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.73% 5-1 @ 1.24% 4-2 @ 1.12% ( -0) Other @ 2.45% Total : 67.21%	1-1 @ 9.54% ( -0) 0-0 @ 6.67% ( 0) 2-2 @ 3.41% ( -0) Other @ 0.59% Total : 20.22%	0-1 @ 4.8% ( 0) 1-2 @ 3.43% ( -0) 0-2 @ 1.73% Other @ 2.61% Total : 12.57%