Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Yemen win with a probability of 48.01%. A win for Nepal had a probability of 28.07% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Yemen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest Nepal win was 1-2 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.