Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jordan win with a probability of 50.87%. A win for Tajikistan had a probability of 24.59% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jordan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (9%). The likeliest Tajikistan win was 0-1 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Jordan would win this match.