Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 66.15%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Finland had a probability of 15.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 1-0 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.74%), while for a Finland win it was 1-2 (4.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.