Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sweden win with a probability of 47.71%. A win for Luxembourg had a probability of 28.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sweden win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.41%) and 0-2 (7.79%). The likeliest Luxembourg win was 2-1 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.