Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Hong Kong win with a probability of 67.6%. A draw has a probability of 18.9% and a win for Nepal has a probability of 13.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hong Kong win is 2-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (10.44%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (8.96%), while for a Nepal win it is 0-1 (4.11%).