Copa Sudamericana
May 15, 2025 11.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Libertadores de America
  • Rodrigo Fernandez 35' yellowcard
  • Diego Tarzia 43' goal
  • Alvaro Anyiver Angulo Mosquera 82' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Agustin Manzur 68'
  • yellowcard Alcides Javier Benitez Cabrera 80'
  • yellowcard Mario Lopez 90'+5'

Independiente vs Guarani - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Independiente

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last game
May 7, 2025 1.30am
Boston River 1 - 5 Independiente

Guarani

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last game
May 6, 2025 11.00pm
Nacional 2 - 2 Guarani

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 66.09%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Guarani had a probability of 12.34%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.13%) and 2-1 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.88%), while for a Guarani win it was 0-1 (5.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Independiente in this match.

Result

Independiente 66.09% (-0.67)
Draw 21.57% (+0.25)
Guarani 12.34% (+0.42)

Both Teams to Score: 

39.88% (+0.50)

Goals

Over 2.5 45.15% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 54.85% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 23.85% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 76.15% (+0.02)
Over 4.5 10.64% (-0.01)
Under 4.5 89.36% (+0.01)

Independiente Goals

Over 0.5 84.1% (-0.23)
Under 0.5 15.9% (+0.23)
Over 1.5 54.86% (-0.42)
Under 1.5 45.14% (+0.42)

Guarani Goals

Over 0.5 47.42% (+0.72)
Under 0.5 52.58% (-0.72)
Over 1.5 13.62% (+0.46)
Under 1.5 86.38% (-0.46)

Score analysis

Independiente 66.08%
Draw 21.58%
Guarani 12.34%
Independiente
1-0 @ 15.37% (-0.12)
2-0 @ 14.13% (-0.21)
2-1 @ 9.09% (+0.06)
3-0 @ 8.67% (-0.20)
3-1 @ 5.57% (-0.01)
4-0 @ 3.98% (-0.13)
4-1 @ 2.56% (-0.03)
3-2 @ 1.79% (+0.04)
5-0 @ 1.47% (-0.06)
Other @ 3.46%
Total : 66.08%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.88% (+0.14)
0-0 @ 8.36% (+0.01)
2-2 @ 2.92% (+0.09)
Other @ 0.41%
Total : 21.58%
Guarani
0-1 @ 5.37% (+0.12)
1-2 @ 3.18% (+0.12)
0-2 @ 1.73% (+0.08)
Other @ 2.06%
Total : 12.34%

Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
Apr 22, 2025 11.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Defensores del Chaco
  • Gustavo David Vargas Areco 28' goal
  • Alcides Javier Benitez Cabrera 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Agustin Manzur 56' yellowcard
  • Gustavo David Vargas Areco 80' goal
  • Fernando Fernandez 88' yellowcard
  • Aldo Maiz 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Alvaro Anyiver Angulo Mosquera 23'
  • yellowcard Diego Tarzia 26'
  • redcard Ivan Marcone 45'+3'
  • goal Felipe Loyola 60'
  • yellowcard Gabriel Avalos 72'
  • yellowcard Felipe Loyola 90'+3'