UEFA Nations League

Nations League | Playoffs B/C | 2nd Leg

Mar 23, 2025 at 5pm UK

Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia

Iceland
1 - 3
Kosovo

(Kosovo win 5-2 on aggregate)

Oskarsson (2')
Gunnarsson (48'), Gudmundsson (70'), Gudjohnsen (72')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Muriqi (35', 45+3', 79')
Vojvoda (39'), Muriqi (52'), Paqarada (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Nations League clash between Iceland and Kosovo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Iceland

All competitions

Last Game: Kosovo 2-1 Iceland
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League B4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Wales	0	0	0
2	Montenegro	0	0	0
3	Turkey	0	0	0
4	Iceland	0	0	0

Kosovo

All competitions

Last Game: Kosovo 2-1 Iceland
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League C2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Romania	0	0	0
2	Cyprus	0	0	0
3	Lithuania	0	0	0
4	Kosovo	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kosovo win with a probability of 39.57%. A win for Iceland had a probability of 33.19% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kosovo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.34%) and 0-2 (7.19%). The likeliest Iceland win was 1-0 (9.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kosovo would win this match.

Result
Iceland	Draw	Kosovo
33.19% ( 1.65)	27.24% ( 0.35)	39.57% ( -2.01)

Both teams to score 49.78% (

-0.57)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.37% (

-0.95)

55.63% (

0.95)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.21% (

-0.78)

76.79% (

0.78)

Iceland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.63% (

0.65)

31.37% (

-0.65)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.26% (

0.74)

67.74% (

-0.75)

Kosovo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.53% (

-1.53)

27.47% (

1.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.04% (

-2.02)

62.96% (

2.02)

Score Analysis

Iceland 33.19%

Kosovo 39.56%

Draw 27.24%

Iceland	Draw	Kosovo
1-0 @ 9.99% ( 0.53) 2-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.21) 2-0 @ 5.79% ( 0.4) 3-1 @ 2.89% ( 0.13) 3-0 @ 2.24% ( 0.19) 3-2 @ 1.87% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.93% Total : 33.19%	1-1 @ 12.9% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 8.62% ( 0.31) 2-2 @ 4.83% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.24%	0-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 8.34% ( -0.27) 0-2 @ 7.19% ( -0.37) 1-3 @ 3.59% ( -0.28) 0-3 @ 3.1% ( -0.3) 2-3 @ 2.08% ( -0.12) 1-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.15) 0-4 @ 1% ( -0.15) Other @ 1.97% Total : 39.56%