Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 68.07%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Cerezo Osaka had a probability of 14.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 1-0 (8.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.13%), while for a Cerezo Osaka win it was 1-2 (4.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.