France vs. Sweden: Why Kylian Mbappe is likely to surpass Ronaldo in World Cup knockout tie

France head into Tuesday’s World Cup Round of 32 tie against Sweden as the overwhelming favourites to advance to the last 16.

The 2018 winners stormed through the group stage, scoring 10 goals across three victories to top Group I.

Unsurprisingly, Mbappe played a starring role in France’s group stage success, netting braces against Senegal and Iraq before providing two assists in Friday’s 4-1 victory over Norway.

Mbappe is continuing to push for the World Cup’s outright scoring record, which currently belongs to Argentina legend Lionel Messi.

The 39-year-old has comfortably surpassed Miroslav Klose’s record with six goals in the tournament, taking his tally to 19 goals in 29 World Cup appearances.

Mbappe is three goals behind Messi, and it is only a matter of time until he takes the record for himself, even if it does not happen in the 2026 tournament.

However, there is a World Cup record that Mbappe could claim for himself in Tuesday’s Round of 32 fixture in East Rutherford.

Mbappe targeting outright goalscoring record

There is arguably no player in the current era who has a stronger relationship with the World Cup than Mbappe, not even Messi.

As a 19-year-old, Mbappe enjoyed immediate success in his first experience of World Cup football in 2018, scoring four goals, including one in the final against Croatia, as France ended a 20-year wait for the ultimate prize.

Then, he went up another level with eight goals at the 2022 tournament, featuring a hat-trick in one of the greatest World Cup finals of all time, even though France came up short to Argentina in the penalty shootout.

Notably, eight of his 12 goals in his first World Cups arrived in the knockout rounds, leaving him in esteemed Brazilian company in the record books.

That is because Mbappe currently shares the record for the most goals in the World Cup knockout stages with Leonidas and Ronaldo Nazario.

Leonidas netted eight goals in five matches across the 1934 and 1938 tournaments, although his record comes with the caveat that both the World Cups he played in were straight knockout competitions.

Ronaldo, meanwhile, scored his eight goals across 10 knockout games, including a match-winning brace in the 2002 final against Germany.

Mbappe will undoubtedly take the outright record for himself, and there is every chance it happens in Tuesday’s clash against a Sweden side that have been far from convincing in the defensive third.

Sweden's defensive struggles offer encouragement to Mbappe & Co.

Graham Potter’s side shipped seven goals in the group stage, with five of those coming in a heavy defeat to the Netherlands.

In fact, looking further back, Sweden have gone 14 games without keeping a clean sheet since recording a shutout in the 2-0 win over Hungary in June 2025.

In that 14-match period, they have conceded multiple goals on eight occasions, something that will be a great cause of concern ahead of a daunting meeting against a likely attacking quartet of Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise, Desire Doue and Mbappe.

That is a far more intimidating attack than the one Sweden faced in the 5-1 loss against the Netherlands, which only reinforces the idea that Mbappe and his colleagues in attack should enjoy themselves against a vulnerable Swedish backline.

Hien injury blow to force reshuffle

Sweden’s task has been made tougher following the news that key centre-back Isak Hien has been ruled out of the World Cup with a hamstring injury.

The Atalanta defender sustained the issue in the first half of the final group game against Japan, meaning Potter will have to reshuffle his pack for the Round of 32 tie.

The most likely scenario is for Victor Lindelof to drop back into one of the three centre-back roles after initially being moved into a defensive midfield position for the draw against Japan.

That would open the door for Lucas Bergvall to start in midfield, but such a move raises concerns about whether he possesses the defensive attributes to shield his backline in a game where Sweden are likely to spend large periods without the ball.

Alternatively, Potter could recall Jesper Karlstrom to sit in front of the backline, but that does not change the fact that he will have to change at least one of his three central defenders, meaning Lindelof, Lagerbielke and Gudmundsson will have to quickly get on the same wavelength if they are to avoid conceding an early goal.

Ultimately, it is difficult to see how Sweden will address their defensive weaknesses in time to put up a strong enough resistance to thwart France.

Chances should fall the way of Didier Deschamps's side, and when they do, they are likely to fall the way of the talismanic Mbappe, who has registered an average of three shots on target per 90 minutes - only two players have managed more at the time of writing.

Not only is he aiming to surpass Leonidas and Ronaldo, but he is also looking to keep pace with Messi and company in the Golden Boot race.