Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 43.21%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 29.62% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (9.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.