Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 41.66%. A win for Roma had a probability of 32.41% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.17%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-0 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.