Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 45.94%. A win for Roma had a probability of 29.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (7.8%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Roma
45.94% ( -2.59)	25.06% ( 0.61)	29.01% ( 1.98)

Both teams to score 54.87% (

-0.54)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.76% (

-1.38)

48.24% (

1.38)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.61% (

-1.28)

70.39% (

1.28)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.97% (

-1.66)

21.03% (

1.66)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.18% (

-2.65)

53.82% (

2.65)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.49% (

0.75)

30.51% (

-0.75)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.27% (

0.89)

66.73% (

-0.89)

Score Analysis

AC Milan 45.93%

Roma 29.01%

Draw 25.05%

AC Milan	Draw	Roma
1-0 @ 10% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.26% ( -0.23) 2-0 @ 7.8% ( -0.36) 3-1 @ 4.81% ( -0.38) 3-0 @ 4.05% ( -0.41) 3-2 @ 2.86% ( -0.16) 4-1 @ 1.88% ( -0.25) 4-0 @ 1.58% ( -0.25) 4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.58% Total : 45.93%	1-1 @ 11.87% ( 0.32) 0-0 @ 6.42% ( 0.36) 2-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.05%	0-1 @ 7.62% ( 0.58) 1-2 @ 7.05% ( 0.33) 0-2 @ 4.52% ( 0.43) 1-3 @ 2.79% ( 0.19) 2-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.79% ( 0.2) Other @ 3.07% Total : 29.01%