Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nantes win with a probability of 49.26%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 24.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nantes win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.29%) and 0-2 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.23%), while for a Qarabag FK win it was 1-0 (8.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.