Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 50.33%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 29.52% and a draw had a probability of 20.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.24%) and 2-0 (6.19%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 1-2 (6.78%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.